The experts views about Bordeaux 2000

« In short, 2000 is a phenomenal year that might turn out to be one of the greatest vintages Bordeaux has ever produced, particularly in view of the number of outstanding (90 points or higher) wines. » - Robert Parker – The Wine Advocate - No 134 April 23, 2001 

« Bordeaux 2000 may be more than just another entry as a great vintage in vinous history books. It may also represent the first exceptional year for a new generation. » James Suckling, Wine Spectator European bureau chief – March 23, 2001 

2000 in a historical perspective 

During the traditional Bordeaux spring pre-tasting sessions held in March 2001, wine critics seemed to compete with each other in using superlatives when comparing Bordeaux 2000 to the best vintages in history i.e.to the 1998 vintage and the outstanding right bank area - Saint Emilion and Pomerol, to the superb 1996 for the finesse of the Cabernet Sauvignon, or to the fantastic 1990 for the complexity of it's structure. Or in older memories, to the excellent 1986 for its concentration or even to the legendary 1982 vintage for the grape’s unusual levels of residual sugar and tannins. By giving the 2000 vintage such an exceptional press, the critics attributed the highest scores in excellence. Impressed by all the laudable reviews, we were interested to compare the ratings given by the two critics who have, without doubt, the most influence on prices at Bordeaux, or in simple words: Robert PARKER and James SUCKLING, to those expressed by Winemega's Contributors

Influence of Robert Parker and Wine Spectator on the market 

Like other activities such as leisure, luxury goods and so forth, wine has largely benefited from the increase in general purchasing power and of the upturn in consumer interest in the 90s. The in depth work accomplished by producers, the reforms introduced by governing bodies (INAO and others), the top down leveling in quality, together with a global marketing effort has attracted an increasing number of amateurs in search of noble and "natural" products. In conjunction with this tendency, a large number of professionals in the wine business have set up training seminars related to wine tasting and other such meetings where both the hedonistic and friendly atmosphere together with a discrete sense of luxury have been put forward. The multiplication of tasting clubs, wine forums, magazines and guides are clear signs of an increasing interest for wine related "products". In this context, the increasing need to be guided through the maze of producing countries, regions, trade names, and soil types among thousands of producers has become very strong. 

Since the end of the 70's, British wine critics were very well known in the international press and the medias. However, it was only in the early 80's that US based Robert Parker in particular has built his the reputation of an outstanding taster after being one of the first to identify the remarkable potentialities of the 1982 vintage. Thanks to his outstanding analysis capacities, his aura spread first through the United States before expanding rapidly throughout the world. 

The magazine Wine Spectator enjoys a widespread a prestige and has an important level of influence in North America due to its high number of readers (approx 1 mio). WS' team of tasters and critics are generally well accepted by the wine growing community and amateurs. Today, both James Suckling (head of the European desk at Wine Spectator) and his team, together with R. Parker have become unavoidable actors in front of producers and consumers alike. One only has to observe the promptness with which proprietors of domains (including the most prestigious) react to the oracles expressed during the traditional pre-tasting sessions held each spring. For the owners, it has become a prime objective to figure at the top end of Parker and Wine Spectator’s listings. Otherwise they have to be ready to brace a down turn in sales in the following months both in North America and Asia. Countless amateurs throughout the world unfortunately listen and react with total blindness to the specialists’ notations and commentaries. It should be noted that close to 40% of Bordeaux's wine production (representing 1.2 billion Euro (1.6 billion US$)  in 1998 (*)  is reserved to the export and some wineries even sell 100% of their production internationnally. Mr. Parker certainly enjoys a very largely recognized reputation of integrity in his activity. But this perverse relationship with producers, probably at Parker's detriment, has regretful side effects of which the consequences are difficult to measure today. 

Today it is recognized that both Robert Parker and Wine Spectator have, at different degrees, both a direct and indirect influence at different levels of production, from the work in the vineyard and the growing in the cellar room, to the last stages before the distribution on the market. A very large number of North American and Asian amateurs have had their taste trained through the writings of these famous critics. They recognize themselves perfectly in a style of dark, heavily structured oaky wines with lots of ripe fruit, which are fun to drink at their early age. 

(*)  source: Les Négociants en Vins et Spiritueux de Bordeaux et de la Gironde

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Troubling figures 

At the end of our analysis on the 2000 vintage, we drew up a certain amount of conclusions, which are quite odd. When comparing the average of scores compiled by Winemega.com tasters with those of Wine Spectator (WS) and Robert Parker (RP), surprising gaps in the notation of identical wines became apparent. First of all, it becomes apparent that RP evaluated 94 wines on a total of 173 (53.7%) as deserving a >90 / 100 score. WS goes even further with 129 wines on a total of 168 (76.8%) scored at 90 or more while at the same time, the average scores of Winemega’s group of tasters came up with a number of only 21 out of 199 (10.6%). It should however be highlighted that when using a standard notation, wines noted over 90 are to be considered as remarkable or exceptional! Averaged scores are always lower than a single scorer but this is a very unusual difference.

These first calculations made, Winemega's team thought about comparing the average of the scores for all the wines with the differentials achieved by its own group of Contributors:

Said differently, WS scored in general 12% higher than Winemega.com. RP too proves to be almost as generous as WS as he scored 10.8% higher on this vintage than Winemega's group of critics. It is interesting to note that both WS and RP overscore respectively 96.4% and 94.3% of the all the wines  in comparison to Winemega.com. 

For example, Pichon Comtesse de Lalande, a prestigious Second Grand Cru of the Pauillac region, has been given an overscore by WS of +10.51 points (21% above Winemega’s!), RP does the same: +9.01 points / +18%. Another astonishing example: Château Pavie, a 1st Grand Cru from Saint Emilion, practically canonized by RP in his comments over the past few years, is scored +8.50 points / +17% by RP. WS does alike with +10.30 points / +20.6%. 

We have pushed further our analysis to other Châteaux's which are not commonly classified in the 25 Top Growth (**), 

(**) Our 25 Top Growth wines: Haut-Brion, Lafite, Latour, Margaux, Mouton, Ausone, Cheval Blanc, Petrus, Mission Haut-Brion, Pape-Clément, Palmer, Lynch-Bages, Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande, Le Pin, Eglise-Clinet, l'Evangile, Lafleur, Trotanoy, Léoville-las-Cases, Ducru-Beaucaillou, Léoville Barton, Pavie, Figeac, Cos d'Estournel, Montrose.

Therefore our results show that the overscores are even more pronounced for this category of wineries. Follows on the next table the most extreme cases of overscoring: 

WINE SPECTATOR : extreme differences within
the 25 Top Growth wines

WINE

OVERSCORE (points)

OVERSCORE (%)

Pichon Comtesse de Lalande

+ 10.51

+ 21.0%

Pavie

+ 10.30

+ 20.6%

Evangile

+ 10.00

+ 20.0%

Lynch-Bages

+ 8.76

+ 17.5%

Cos d'Estournel

+ 7.50

+ 15.0%

Ducru-Beaucaillou

+ 7.39

+ 14.8%

Léoville Barton

+ 7.08

+ 14.2%

Figeac

+ 6.93

+ 13.9%

Montrose.

+ 5.60

 + 11.2%

Eglise-Clinet

+ 5.45

+ 10.9%

Extreme differences ex- the 25 Top Growth wines

WINE

OVERSCORE (points)

OVERSCORE (%)

Lanessan

+ 13.85

+ 27.7%

Clinet

+ 12.96

+ 25.9%

Cote de Baleau

+ 12.70

+ 25.4%

Franc-Mayne

+ 12.43

+ 24.9%

Léoville-Poyferre

+ 11.42

+ 22.8%

Gruaud Larose

+ 11.41

+ 22.8%

Cantemerle

+ 11.24

+ 22.5%

Haut-Bages Liberal

+ 10.50

+ 21.0%

Ferriere

+ 10.39

+ 20.8%

Clusière

+ 10.26

+ 20.5%

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ROBERT PARKER : extreme differences within
the 25 Top Growth wines

WINE

OVERSCORE (points)

OVERSCORE (%)

Pichon Comtesse de Lalande

+ 9.01

+ 18.0%

Pavie

+ 8.50

+ 17.0%

Evangile

+ 7.50

+ 15.0%

Léoville Barton

+ 7.28

+ 14.6%

Pape-Clément

+ 7.21

+ 14.4%

Figeac

+ 6.93

+ 13.9%

Montrose.

+ 6.60

+ 13.2%

Mission Haut-Brion

+ 6.50

+ 13.0%

Lynch-Bages

+ 6.26

+ 12.5%

Cheval Blanc

+ 6.21

+ 12.4%

Exteme differences ex- the 25 Top Growth wines

WINE

OVERSCORE (points)

OVERSCORE (%)

Corbin Michotte

+ 18.20

+ 36.4%

Lanessan

+ 16.35

+ 32.7%

Haut Bergey

+ 11.34

+ 22.7%

Clusière

 + 11.26

+ 22.5%

Conseillante

+ 10.22

+ 20.4%

Malescot St-Exupéry

+ 10.19

+ 20.3%

Carmes Haut-Brion

+ 10.11

+ 20.2%

Pavie Decesse

+ 9.76

+ 19.5%

Cote de Baleau

+ 9.70

+ 19.4%

Monbousquet

+ 9.70

 + 19,4%

Definition of a fair price 

In order to quantify if a wine is expensive or not, putting aside some subjective factors such as the emotional level, the reputation or the prestige of le label, the best and safest way to proceed is to work with statistical measurements. We used linear regression curves to point out the ratio between a wine's price and it's quality. Prof. Charles Wyposz has defined three main factors which significantly influence the final price of a wine.

1. The vintage factor

A number of wines have their trading value to fluctuate from one year to the next. It is also true that the overall value of a vintage plays a dominant role in the final price of a wine. We have analysed the four most recent years (96', 97', 98' and 99') and  we compared the results between 2000 and the lowest priced vintage of our model (1996). The results show that 2000 is globally over valued by as much as 37.9%.

2. The region factor

It is also interesting to measure the differences in prices from one region to another. Indeed, when one goes to his favorite wine merchant, one can notice immediately that the wines from the Pomerol and Pauillac regions are globally more expensive than those from the regions of Moulis or Haut-Medoc. It is quite possible to measure in detail this tendency. It can be called the "region factor". For the Pomerol 2000’s, one has to pay an extra premium of 79% (!) in comparison to a wine from the Haut-Medoc which has the same ratings. A close study of this phenomenon proved that a similar effect can be observed in 2000 with wines coming from regions that are traditionally cheaper such as those from the Medoc, Margaux or Saint-Estephe regions.

3. The rating effect

Finally, Charles Wyposz measured the effect of price variations in regard to a given score. In the table below, if the wine’s rating increases by one point, the price increases on average by:

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As already stated before, the two most influential wine critics of the world have attributed higher scores than the average given by Winemega's Contributors. It has been possible to measure the impact and determination of scores on  the pricing that consumers finally have to pay. 

Examples:

1. Among the most prestigious Bordeaux growths, the average scoring difference between RP and Winemega is 3.6 points. Consequently, our model shows that prices are over valued by 72% in comparison to the prices they should be if RP's scores where equivalent to those of Winemega. As a result, if one has to pay on average 200 € for a Top Growth wine, the fair price in contrast to the qualitative evaluation made by Winemega.com should normally be around 116 €. 

2. For wines that are not classified among the "Top 25", the average difference in ratings between RP and Winemega.com is of 5.8 points. The contrast in this category is even more dramatic with an over value of 162%! Hence, if one pays on average 30 € for a wine in this category, the fair price in contrast to the qualitative evaluation made by Winemega should be situated around 11.45 €, which represents an outrageous price difference. 

Also, thanks to this type of statistical model, it is possible to calculate a fair price that corresponds to the rating for every wine. Here are two typical examples:

One can clearly see that the price of a Pavie (St-Emilion) is largely overvalued given that Winemega's average score (89.85) would rather justify a fair price around 52 €. Parker gives an astonishing 95 / 96+ score to this wine. 

On the other hand, in the case of Grand Puy Ducasse (Pauillac), the average rating given to this wine by Winemega.com is 83.51, therefore the price of 20 € is perfectly warranted. To be noted that Parker himself gives quite a close score (85 / 86), which probably explains why there's no real speculation for this wine and consequently that it’s fair price ultimately equals to the market’s price. 

This approach in using numbers allows also to secure useful and interesting information on the quality / price ratio of a wine. For Winemega.com, the most interesting "bargains" of the 2000 vintage are Château Cantin (St-Emilion), Château la Fleur (St-Emilion), and Château le Gay (Pomerol). Among other well-known names: Château Chantegrive (Graves) and Château Nenin (Pomerol) should also be mentioned as representing excellent picks. A broader and more complete list of Châteaux that have sale prices below or close to their fair price can be found at the "2000 Quality/Price ratio" page. 

Some reflections on the "NEW" style of Bordeaux Wines

Robert Parker and Wine Spectator are without any doubt excellent professionals. They certainly have the professional ethic to avoid falling into multiple traps of conflict of interests in front of which they must certainly be faced from time to time. 

Today one cannot contest the fact that mainly Mr Parker, but also the people at Wine Spectator, can do or undo the reputation and the price fixing of most Bordeaux estates, especially during the Spring pre-tasting season. This situation occurs because only a very limited number of people have the opportunity to attend to pre-tasting sessions. Consequently most of them have no choice than to rely on the critic's notes and scores. As a consequent, a 95+ points Parker score will immediately sky rocket prices to unjustified levels. On the other hand, a sudden ban of a property after it was "downgraded" by RP (which may be a totally justified measure by the way) may easily dump prices by half! That’s why owners feel so nervous about Parker’s reviews. But ultimately, wine lovers should really learn to taste by themselves in order to forge their own opinions! 

Coming back to this study, one can only regret that the notion of "exceptional wine" is so extensively used in the context of a speculative vintage as that of 2000. The synonym for EXCEPTIONAL is RARE, and obviously shouldn't be utilized to describe more that half of a group of 160 wines! Indeed, the techniques used in today's wine making have a tendency to narrow gaps between an excellent "Cru Bourgeois" and Château Margaux. However, one thing that an excellent Cru Bourgeois will never match is the very unique soil of Château Margaux, Latour, Haut-Brion, Cheval-Blanc, Ausone or Petrus! 

One must recognize that Robert Parker helped to increase the speed of changes towards much better quality wines. It would be excessive to attribute all the improvements implemented by producers, but his influence has without doubt largely contributed to this end. It is a fact that since the end of the 80s, a majority of properties have perceptibly modified their style. Today, wines are darker, denser, riper and better extracted. Would it be exaggerated to ascertain that certain owners have done so with a secondary objective to please the critics and their followers? Very few will publicly admit the principle, even if the consequences of RP's recommendations have a tangible effect on the operating margins of the property. Without doubt, overall production has gained in homogeneity and steadiness, but experienced amateurs sometimes regret wines from the previous decades. They could at times be irregular or lacking in quality, but they had their own character and specificities attached to a particular area. Nowdays, due to wide spread similar wine techniques, it gets increasingly difficult to spot differences from one appellation to another. In conclusion, today’s tendency is for a kind of standardization (a problem noted in other areas also) with a number of magnificent wines built like sculptural athletes, but totally incapable to develop the tactics and shrewdness of a 3000-meter hurdles race. 

Winemega.com - Alain BRINGOLF – October 2001 

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